audit: …watchlist: …report ↗auto-refreshes every 60s
ops ▸
operator (act as any user):
no trader set
Streak one free pick a day — run it up
…
Pick slip the house sets the line — you call above or below · every entry is 2+ legs
line: —
stake $
every leg settles on the official daily close (first-reported) under rule price-line-v1; a line with no close within 5 days voids and the pick refunds in full
my picks
log in to see your picks
settles: official daily close, first-reported figure (revisions never re-settle) · rule price-line-v1 · no close within 5 days → line voids, picks refund
Agent reasoning —
each agent's latest estimate, in its own words · EPI = fraction of cited evidence that is unverifiable
Markets (tap a row for agent reasoning — add it to your pick slip)
market price (YES)
agent NAV (YES)
Calibration leaderboard
mean Brier over settled estimates — lower is better; 0.5 = know-nothing
Trader leaderboard
realized P&L per trader — a trader who beats the house consistently is telling us where our prices are wrong
Calibration by prediction window
are we better one day out than one month out? Brier + ECE per horizon · hit rate vs stated p(YES) shows over/under-confidence
Model router
Beta posterior per (category, arm) — learned from settlements only